I came across these write ups on the MIT News page and thought of sharing it with the audience here. These are two simple yet effective write ups on the most convoluted concepts in Climate Change. The first one is on Climate Sensitivity:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/explained-climate-sensitivity.html
The second on Radiative Forcing. I was about to write a post on it myself, this makes my task easier:P
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/explained-radforce-0309.html
Monday, March 22, 2010
Unconventionally Optimistic!
Unconventional was never more conventional! As most of you would have known by now, for hardly a day passes by without reading about 'it' in the news media, we have discovered a huge resource of gas! This gas, labeled as Unconventional Natural Gas, is basically the gas that was initially overlooked as either it was too expensive to 'collect' or the technology was not evolved enough to 'collect' it. We are referring to the three kinds of gas as ‘unconventional’, shale gas, tight gas and coal-bed methane.
Let's look at the evolution of this gas, along with what it means for geo-politics, economics and the debate on climate change. Contrary to the common perception, shale gas, as it is often referred as, is not a ‘discovery’ rather a success story of progressive technological capabilities. This gas was hitherto considered unusable as it occurred in places which could not be mined. The high prices of gas in recent years ensured that large sums of money went into finding out ways of getting this gas out in ways in which it could be used. The development of two technologies, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlocked the huge potential in unconventional gas. Fracing, pronounced ‘fracking’, allows gas trapped in shale rock formations to be released by blasting with appropriate chemicals. Horizontal drilling allows the drills to penetrate the earth horizontally for hundreds or thousands of metres, where the gas is trapped.
This is a huge find and there are mind boggling predictions of the scale of this find, which some say are still conservative estimates. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the global find to be 921 trillion cubic metres, more than 5 times the provable conventional reserves! Unconventional becomes the new conventional.
This has led to a frenetic pace of deployment of the technology to produce more gas for the energy hungry countries. The two major shale reserves in the US, Barnett Shale in Texas and Marcellus Shale in the North Eastern US, are finds that have sent the oil and gas industry into a spin! The Barnett Shale alone accounted for 7% of the total gas production in US last year. So much so, that the US is predicted to leapfrog Russia as the largest producer of gas in the world, this year. There have also been major acquisitions and deal signing in this area; the big oil and gas firms are falling over each other to cash in the gold rush. These are the firms that were looking away as the smaller gas players invested in developing the technology!
This is a major development for the geopolitics and economics as well. Shale gas is ubiquitous, as opposed to the concentrated find of oil in the world. This means that the world need not bend over backwards to please the oil producing countries in the Middle East, arguably the most destabilized region of the world, in order to satiate their ever increasing energy needs. The IEA predicts huge finds of such gas in China and India, which will ease the pressure on these fast growing economies to secure their energy sources to fuel their growth ambitions. It also means that America might start investing their money into finding these reserves in their own land, rather than implanting democracies in far off places! The large finds will reduce the mammoth energy bill that some of these countries have to pay, compromising on some of the more important issues at home.
This is also good news on the climate change front. Gas has 50% to 70% lesser emissions than coal and any shift to using more gas in the electricity sector, owing to the glut of it, will only help the cause of reducing emissions.
However, all is not well with this gas. There are huge question marks on the environmental depredation that is caused by mining for the unconventional gas. Mining in the state of Pennsylvania has exposed some problems with water requirements of the process and any tampering with water reserves is going to cause further strain in this brewing global problem. There are also question marks placed on the prediction of this reserve, which may roil the party atmosphere. UK, under Thatcher in the 1980s, made a tactical mistake by switching their electricity generation to gas from coal, based on optimistic predictions of a find in the North Sea. The gas field soon ran out and UK was left dependent on others for more gas! So, the predictions will need to be validated time ad again!
As for common people of the world, like me, it is the perfect time grab a cup of coffee, put your feet up on the table and watch the game evolve:) It’s going to be a gripping story!
Let's look at the evolution of this gas, along with what it means for geo-politics, economics and the debate on climate change. Contrary to the common perception, shale gas, as it is often referred as, is not a ‘discovery’ rather a success story of progressive technological capabilities. This gas was hitherto considered unusable as it occurred in places which could not be mined. The high prices of gas in recent years ensured that large sums of money went into finding out ways of getting this gas out in ways in which it could be used. The development of two technologies, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlocked the huge potential in unconventional gas. Fracing, pronounced ‘fracking’, allows gas trapped in shale rock formations to be released by blasting with appropriate chemicals. Horizontal drilling allows the drills to penetrate the earth horizontally for hundreds or thousands of metres, where the gas is trapped.
This is a huge find and there are mind boggling predictions of the scale of this find, which some say are still conservative estimates. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the global find to be 921 trillion cubic metres, more than 5 times the provable conventional reserves! Unconventional becomes the new conventional.
This has led to a frenetic pace of deployment of the technology to produce more gas for the energy hungry countries. The two major shale reserves in the US, Barnett Shale in Texas and Marcellus Shale in the North Eastern US, are finds that have sent the oil and gas industry into a spin! The Barnett Shale alone accounted for 7% of the total gas production in US last year. So much so, that the US is predicted to leapfrog Russia as the largest producer of gas in the world, this year. There have also been major acquisitions and deal signing in this area; the big oil and gas firms are falling over each other to cash in the gold rush. These are the firms that were looking away as the smaller gas players invested in developing the technology!
This is a major development for the geopolitics and economics as well. Shale gas is ubiquitous, as opposed to the concentrated find of oil in the world. This means that the world need not bend over backwards to please the oil producing countries in the Middle East, arguably the most destabilized region of the world, in order to satiate their ever increasing energy needs. The IEA predicts huge finds of such gas in China and India, which will ease the pressure on these fast growing economies to secure their energy sources to fuel their growth ambitions. It also means that America might start investing their money into finding these reserves in their own land, rather than implanting democracies in far off places! The large finds will reduce the mammoth energy bill that some of these countries have to pay, compromising on some of the more important issues at home.
This is also good news on the climate change front. Gas has 50% to 70% lesser emissions than coal and any shift to using more gas in the electricity sector, owing to the glut of it, will only help the cause of reducing emissions.
However, all is not well with this gas. There are huge question marks on the environmental depredation that is caused by mining for the unconventional gas. Mining in the state of Pennsylvania has exposed some problems with water requirements of the process and any tampering with water reserves is going to cause further strain in this brewing global problem. There are also question marks placed on the prediction of this reserve, which may roil the party atmosphere. UK, under Thatcher in the 1980s, made a tactical mistake by switching their electricity generation to gas from coal, based on optimistic predictions of a find in the North Sea. The gas field soon ran out and UK was left dependent on others for more gas! So, the predictions will need to be validated time ad again!
As for common people of the world, like me, it is the perfect time grab a cup of coffee, put your feet up on the table and watch the game evolve:) It’s going to be a gripping story!
Science of Climate Change
The Economist published a neat article on the science of climate change, which should be a good read for audience here. Reactions anyone?
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15719298
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15719298
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Quite a Study!
This study has been recently published by researchers at MIT. This is quite a handful so I wanted to throw it out in the open. DOn't know what you think of studies like these:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/climate-wind-0312.html
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/climate-wind-0312.html
Friday, March 12, 2010
Fueling the world, the biological way!
The audience here may be aware of the whole debate on Biofuels but I would love to revisit some of the arguments here. With biofuels, you always run into the trilemma of issues regarding (1) Energy Security, (2) Environment and Biodiversity and (3) Food Security.
The world has seen many back and forth in this area ever since Brazil demonstrated its prowess with sugarcane based ethanol. US also jumped in the fray by mandating the production of corn based ethanol, on a steep production trajectory, in 2005. Very soon people realized that the policy was causing more harm than good by raising the food prices and shifting the land use patterns. So, President Bush, it was not exactly the Indian middle class which was driving up the cost of food:)
The US policy on corn based ethanol has been much maligned and looks set to be missed. However, that has not dampened the enthusiasm of the industry around this different liquid fuel. The one important thing to bear in mind is that not all fuels that are produced from biological sources are necessarily good. The handling and processing require energy and if the energy is coming from conventional sources viz. coal, oil and gas, we will very well end up with an overall energy penalty in excess of 100%. In short, we might be putting out more carbon than we would have in the business as usual case.
This life cycle analysis, also known as the well to wheel analysis is extremely important in the case where the biofuels are imported into US from developing nations. Currently, US has a tax on imported biofuels that make them uncompetitive in terms of price. So Brazil, the current darling of the world when it comes to bioethanol, is not able to openly operate in US. Say, the US was to do away with the import duty and some such developing nation is able to export here. In that case, the benefit of the emissions reduction will accrue to US while the developing nation will be slapped by excess emissions that went in producing the fuel in the first place. Hence, emission accounting will prove to be a major heartburn in the future!
The ideal path would be a mix of (a) Use the land that is abandoned from agricultural use to grow biomass (b) Use agricultural residues to produce biofuels and (c) Use innovative agricultural methods like mixed cropping, double crops and squeeze in something from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) too!
The problem with alternative, or low-carbon, fuels are that there is no single right answer with them. No single source of energy, be it wind, solar, geothermal or even biofuels, can provide the same luxuries that the conventional fuel provided us. (On a different note, the flow of energy in a gas tank, when we fill at a gas station, is 10 MW!! Such energy flows can never be matched by any renewable fuel) Hence, the world will have to stop looking for a silver bullet but start looking for that magical mix of fuels that will optimize the energy output and reduce carbon emissions by the required amount.
Until then,be prepared for a bumpy ride! And don't forget to fasten your seat belts:P
The world has seen many back and forth in this area ever since Brazil demonstrated its prowess with sugarcane based ethanol. US also jumped in the fray by mandating the production of corn based ethanol, on a steep production trajectory, in 2005. Very soon people realized that the policy was causing more harm than good by raising the food prices and shifting the land use patterns. So, President Bush, it was not exactly the Indian middle class which was driving up the cost of food:)
The US policy on corn based ethanol has been much maligned and looks set to be missed. However, that has not dampened the enthusiasm of the industry around this different liquid fuel. The one important thing to bear in mind is that not all fuels that are produced from biological sources are necessarily good. The handling and processing require energy and if the energy is coming from conventional sources viz. coal, oil and gas, we will very well end up with an overall energy penalty in excess of 100%. In short, we might be putting out more carbon than we would have in the business as usual case.
This life cycle analysis, also known as the well to wheel analysis is extremely important in the case where the biofuels are imported into US from developing nations. Currently, US has a tax on imported biofuels that make them uncompetitive in terms of price. So Brazil, the current darling of the world when it comes to bioethanol, is not able to openly operate in US. Say, the US was to do away with the import duty and some such developing nation is able to export here. In that case, the benefit of the emissions reduction will accrue to US while the developing nation will be slapped by excess emissions that went in producing the fuel in the first place. Hence, emission accounting will prove to be a major heartburn in the future!
The ideal path would be a mix of (a) Use the land that is abandoned from agricultural use to grow biomass (b) Use agricultural residues to produce biofuels and (c) Use innovative agricultural methods like mixed cropping, double crops and squeeze in something from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) too!
The problem with alternative, or low-carbon, fuels are that there is no single right answer with them. No single source of energy, be it wind, solar, geothermal or even biofuels, can provide the same luxuries that the conventional fuel provided us. (On a different note, the flow of energy in a gas tank, when we fill at a gas station, is 10 MW!! Such energy flows can never be matched by any renewable fuel) Hence, the world will have to stop looking for a silver bullet but start looking for that magical mix of fuels that will optimize the energy output and reduce carbon emissions by the required amount.
Until then,be prepared for a bumpy ride! And don't forget to fasten your seat belts:P
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