It's only fitting that there is a post on the weekend that gives way to the Copenhagen summit! And hold your breath, for this is the moment you were waiting for your whole life! You shall be left mesmerized by the coordinated global action on this overarching global problem!
Well, who are we kidding here! You can use your breath for other things currently for nothing spectacular is expected out of this political jamboree. And I always counted myself amongst the die-hard optimists!
Keeping with the expected tone of heated discussions at Copenhagen, some of which might question the legitimacy of the climate science, I shall talk today about something that might keep the climate skeptics awake at night:) Oh, I can see them getting all red with the anticipation of going for the kill this year! This one's for you, you Doubting Thomases!
The latest salvo against climate change comes from the most unexpected quarters, the Sun! Never knew that even the celestial powers were scheming against any consensus on climate science:) The phenomenon in question here is Sunspots. I will add a caveat here that people have spent their lives researching on this topic and I am nowhere close to being even a passive observer. So please take my post with a grain of salt, but I would be thrilled if somebody could improve my perspective on this issue.
Sunspots are complex magnetic activities on the surface of the sun, the photosphere, that creates temporary dark spots on it. These spots are cooler than the rest of the surface, they tend to appear in pairs on either side of the sun and are expected to last for about 2 weeks before disappearing. The sunspot cycle is reported to be 11 years in length, coinciding with the magnetic field cycle of the sun. So, as the magnetic field goes stronger, we observe a higher number of sunspots, which then go through a minimum until the magnetic field reverses direction bringing the number of spots back up.
Anyway, beyond the physics of it, we just need to keep note of one simple fact. It may seem that as the sunspots are colder than the rest of the photosphere, the intensity of the solar radiation would be lower than normal, 1366W/m2. This is NOT true, as the surrounding region of the spots are hotter than normal and make the incidence go higher than normal. Put simply, occurrence of sunspots makes the sun send MORE heat to earth.
A new solar cycle was expected to start in 2008, which should have led to the formation of sunspots by now. These spots are still elusive, prompting scientists to say that 2010 will mark a comeback for them, and NASA expects them to peak in 2013. However, the National Solar Observatory in Arizona, US has found that the sun's magnetism has been decreasing in strength for some time now and we may have seen the last of them, as the field would be too weak for them to form! This would mean that we might see less heat from the sun reaching earth, cooling the earth. This is not the first time we shall see such a phenomenon; the period from 1645-1715 was marked by no sunspot occurrence leading to extremely cold winters across the world and goes by the name Maunder Minimum.
You would have guessed my drift by now!:) 2010 will be an interesting year for arguments between climate wonks and climate skeptics. The global warming meets the solar cooling! Let the arguments begin:)
Surf Excel used to run an ad campaign in India, with the punch line:
"Daag ache hai na!"(Stains are good na, desi style:))
I could not agree more with them:)
Here's to Copenhagen!
